Preamble
2 decades ago, Kenyans were said to be the most optimistic citizens on earth. Hope was palpable. The average Kenyan believed in the promise of a better, more prosperous future for themselves and their family. We all believed that we could “make it”. That optimism and hope has systematically and consistently been eroded. If a survey was conducted today, very few Kenyans would be described as optimistic. Most people, and, sadly, an overwhelming majority of young Kenyans, would probably describe themselves as pessimistic regarding the future of the country. Their country. Understandably so.
Spending by Government has increased by 53% over the past 5 years (from KES 2.5T to KES 3.8T) keeping inflation high at over 5% per year which has contributed to the rising cost of living (30% increase during the period based on the consumer price index). This spending spree by Government has increased the total public debt by 87% (from KES 5.1T to KES 9.6T) and squeezed out the private sector from credit markets by keeping interest rates high (47% increase in the central bank rate) and therefore restricted access by industry and the middle and lower classes of society. With limited access to capital, it is no surprise that the economy is slowly grinding to a halt. GDP per capita (measured at constant prices) has grown by less than 10% and new job creation is essentially non-existent with only 210K new jobs created in the formal economy in the last 5 years. With high unemployment (3M total wage employees of which 2M are private sector jobs, 17M informal sector jobs, out of a 2023 total population estimated at 51.5M), crime is on the rise (12% increase in the period measured by the number of crimes reported to the police).
This path is unsustainable - and unacceptable. Rapid economic transformation is required to stimulate formal job creation, reduce the cost of living and reduce the national debt. A key enabler of this rapid economic transformation is a strong governance agenda that will establish and entrench order and the rule of law, and effective government that is based on the Constitution of Kenya.
This plan outlines a vision and a plan for a new Kenya, one where the present and the future is better than the past for all Kenyans.
Source: Facts and Figures 2024, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
| Indicator | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (%) | 5.2 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 7.7 |
| Consumer price index (Feb 2019=100) | 103.2 | 108.7 | 115.3 | 124.2 | 133.7 |
| Wage employment in the modern private sector (no., millions) | 2,928.4 | 2,742.6 | 2,906.1 | 3,015.4 | 3,138.3 |
| GDP per capita at constant prices (KES) | 183,969.5 | 178,891.9 | 188,976.3 | 195,626.9 | 201,841.0 |
| Total national government expenditure (KES billions) | 2,595.7 | 2,731.6 | 2,989.6 | 3,147.1 | 3,982.9 |
| Total public debt (external and domestic in KES billions) | 5,141.8 | 6,024.8 | 6,928.9 | 8,065.4 | 9,623.9 |
| Total crimes reported to the police (no.) | 93,411 | 69,645 | 81,272 | 88,083 | 104,842 |
| Producer price index (Mar 2019=100) | 101.8 | 102.1 | 109.5 | 126.1 | 140.2 |
| GDP growth at constant prices (%) | 5.1 | -0.3 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 5.6 |
| Total ordinary revenue - tax + non-tax (KES billions) | 1,797.7 | 1,803.5 | 2,199.8 | 2,300.1 | 2,978.4 |
| Trade balance (KES billions) | -1,209.7 | -999.8 | -1,375.7 | -1,617.6 | -1.604.1 |
| Tourism arrivals (no., thousands) | 2,035.4 | 579.6 | 871.3 | 1,541.0 | 2,086.8 |
Principles
Objectives